More Cubans Defect, the US is (Probably) Screwed

By: Laurie | March 13th, 2008

US dreams for Olympic qualification have taken a big blow in the past two days, and for once it’s not really their fault.

Yesterday we talked about the five Cubans from the U-23 Olympic qualifying team who defected to the US, leaving only thirteen players to carry the load in the last two group games. Those five appeared on Spanish-language TV in Florida yesterday, moving them from “missing” to “officially defected,” although they have not yet contacted the US government to ask for asylum.

As of today, two more have defected. The five were joined by defender Yendri Diaz and midfielder Eder Roldan. This leaves only eleven players on the team, and one is suspended.

Of course, there is a possibility that the remaining players will elect to continue, even with only ten men eligible for tonight’s game against Honduras. But chances are fairly high that they will end up forfeiting their remaining games.

This is great news for Panama and Honduras, who are scheduled to play Cuba in Group A games today and Saturday. It’s not great news for the US, who played Cuba on Tuesday night and were held to a 1-1 draw.

What this would mean is that there would be only three teams remaining in the group. The top two advance, so the odds aren’t horrible for the US. But, unless the gods at FIFA were to rule otherwise, both Panama and Honduras would have to play only two group games instead of three, and they would get an unearned three points for the unplayed Cuba games. The US would have to play all three games and would get only the one point from their Cuba draw. They would be going into the race two points behind because of the timing of the Cuban defections.

The US must now win at least one, and finish with more points than either Honduras or Panama. (Honduras got a 1-0 win over Panama in the first round.) A win over Panama today would be enough to go through, but a loss to Panama means Panama and Honduras go through.

Of course, if Cuba has to forfeit, it would probably be more fair to declare this a three-team group and wipe out the US-Cuba results altogether, but I don’t see that happening.

So now, instead, the US needs to play tonight like there’s no tomorrow, or their Olympic dreams will have walked out that hotel door with the Cubans.

U.S. vs. Panama will air tonight on FSC at 8:00 Eastern.