D-Day Preview

By: Ian Rose | May 11th, 2008

They look so happy, don’t they, laughing and smiling at each other? In a few hours, one will still be happy. For the other, well, there’s still the Champions League.

This is it. The last day of the Premier League season is upon us, with two teams fighting for the title, three battling for survival, and most of the others going out for nothing but honor and a little extra prize money. There’s also the small matter of a UEFA Cup spot up for grabs. All the matches are going on simultaneously, at 3pm BST, so none of that waiting around. Two hours of nervous channel flipping, and it’s all in the books. Here’s a look at today’s fixtures, and what they mean for the teams involved.

Birmingham v Blackburn
Birmingham are in 19th, looking down only on Derby, who at least have the comfort of knowing their fate. They need a win, and some help from Fulham and Reading, who are a point ahead of them. If they draw and the others lose, though, their goal differential will bail them out. Blackburn is in 7th, and can finish 6th at best, with Europe close but not close enough.

Chelsea v Bolton
Chelsea, of course, need to win and hope for a Man United draw or loss to secure a third league title in four years. Bolton need only avoid a ridiculous blowout, and they are safe for another season. With twelve road losses this season, it’s hard to see Bolton being the ones to break the Stamford Bridge streak, but a draw isn’t outside of possibility.

Derby v Reading
Derby has literally nothing but pride to play for. Statistically relegated for more than a month, they will be the worst team this year, and going by points, the worst in league history. Sunderland 2006, you may officially pass on that dubious honor. Still, they couldn’t ask for a less in-form team to finish their Premiership campaign against, as Reading has gone over nine hours of game time without scoring a goal. Reading need a point to have any hope of staying up, and even if they win, their fate will be in the hands of Fulham. There is no possible result to this match that would surprise me.
Preview from Reading Offside
Preview from Derby Offside

Everton v Newcastle
Everton play host to a surprisingly revitalized Newcastle, with the UEFA Cup on the line for the Toffees. A point from this match will ensure a return to Europe, but if the Kevolution continues and the Toon takes it, Villa might just step up and steal the spot.

Middlesbrough v Manchester City
Man City’s (presumed) last match under Sven-Goran Ericksson, with nothing but league placement on the line for either side. Boro have had a mixed year, dropping points to bad teams and taking them from great ones. City have had moments of brilliance, but most were in the first half of the season, and just about all were at home. A fifth win on the road will hardly save Sven’s job, but along with the Fair Play UEFA Cup spot that is virtually theirs, it might give Shinawatra a bit of pause before he lowers the ax.

Portsmouth v Fulham
Pompey are a week away from the FA Cup final, their one route to Europe next season, and it’s hard to think of this last league game as terribly important to them. Fulham, on the other hand, are just out of relegation and hoping to stay out, with Reading and Birmingham reaching up from the Championship grave to pull them back down. Brian McBride and fellows have had a great month, but Portsmouth is better than the teams they’ve beaten to survive this long. If they don’t win, they’ll need to depend on Derby getting a result, never a good bet.

Sunderland v Arsenal
Arsenal are third, no matter what happens here, but Arsene Wenger will want to end on a strong note, especially with rumors that everyone from Alexander Hleb to the backup towel boy is leaving after this match. Sunderland is safe, the only promoted side that can claim that, and Roy Keane is looking at a very different sort of player turnover, one of his choosing. Keane’s side could finish anywhere from 13th to 16th, but aside from his tenacious will to win everything he enters, I think he realizes this one doesn’t much matter one way or the other. It will be one last chance for his players to avoid the chopping block, though.

Tottenham v Liverpool
Spurs have had a disappointing run in, and Liverpool has rebounded from a disappointing start. On form, there’s no question that the Reds should take this one. But since Everton has fallen back, and Liverpool is guaranteed Champions League football, Tottenham might have more of a mental carrot to reach for. A Spurs win and West Ham loss puts Tottenham in 10th, and they can at least point to a rise back into the top half to go with their League Cup and UEFA Cup qualification.

West Ham v Aston Villa
The Hammers sit in tenth for now, but are one of the worst form teams in the league. United handled them quite easily last week even after Nani saw red. Villa are three points off of Everton’s 5th-place UEFA Cup position, with equal goal difference, so if Everton lose and Villa win, Martin O’Neill will have European football at Villa Park. Even with the shutout loss to Wigan last week, they should still have the form to handle the Hammers.
Preview from Villa Offside

Wigan v Manchester United
This, of course, is the one that matters most. No matter what Chelsea does, short of putting 20 past Bolton, United can clinch the title with a win here. On paper, it’s a pretty straight-forward tie for Sir Alex’s Devils, but Steve Bruce might have something to say about it. Wigan have had good results against the big boys this season, and are capable of the draw on their best day, as long as United doesn’t have theirs. Will Cristiano Ronaldo be able to add to his astounding 40-goal season? Or will the beaten-up rugby pitch impose a will of its own?

Not much longer to wait. It’s been an interesting season, a great one for some, a rough one for others, and then there was Derby. It’s going to be a fantastic two hours of football. Enjoy it.