Is the Premier League Top Four Unbreakable?

As Newcastle’s unbeaten run came to an end against Chelsea yesterday, Kevin Keegan looked at Avram Grant’s bench and saw Frank Lampard, Joe Cole and Andri Shevchenko lounging around. Then he looked at his bench and saw Cacapa. Then he decided the Premier League was unfair.

“Maybe the owner thinks we can bridge that gap – but we can’t,” he said. “This league is in danger of becoming one of the most boring but great leagues in the world … The top four next year will be the same top four as this year.”

This isn’t a new problem. The top four get Champions League money, they spend it on good players, then they make the top four again. And everyone else fights for fifth place.

So credit to Keegan for speaking out and expressing a view held by many many fans. And right now there’s an 11 point gap between Liverpool in 4th and Everton in 5th. But while there’s a definite top-heavy imbalance in the Premier League, I’m not quite as pessimistic as King Kev.

No doubt it’s all about money. But, for better or worse, the recent influx of foreign ownership means there’s more money than ever sloshing around the Premier League. Aston Villa for example. They used to be owned Doug Ellis, who made Scrooge look like Santa Claus. But now they’re owned by billionaire Randy Lerner who was willing to trust his manager and spend a seemingly ridiculous amount on Ashley Young last season.

So I’d argue that through either money or good management or both, teams like Everton, Aston Villa, Portsmouth and Spurs are theoretically capable of breaking into the top four. Everton did it in 2005. One of these teams could do it again. Add other teams like Man City and West Ham, and the Premier League has plenty of teams with plenty of money.

But all these clubs are only recently rich. The current top four have been rich for more than one or two seasons, so they’ve had time to spend their money. Let’s wait and see how far Randy Lerner’s money and Martin O’Neill’s brain can take Aston Villa. Wait and see what Juande Ramos can do at Spurs. Let’s wait and see if Mike Ashley’s money and Kevin Keegan’s management can take Newcastle somewhere.

Because while it’s good that Kevin Keegan spoke out, there’s a definite element of him covering his own back. I didn’t choose that image just because it made me laugh (though it did do that, the internet is full of funny King Kev images.) By saying “it can’t be done” he’s attempting to relieve the pressure on himself to get it done.

And maybe that’s the wrong attitude. The top four might look unbreakable right now, but nothing in football is ever permanent. Keegan’s essentially suggesting that Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool will be in the top four from now until the end of time. When you put it like that it sounds insane. All that’s needed is a club with money and a manager with the brains and balls to make it happen.

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Category: English Premier League