Fulhamerica, **** Yeah!

By: Ian Rose | May 3rd, 2008

(Note: A little something for the ladies, courtesy of Brian McBride. If you’re going to make a post with this many goal differential numbers in it, you need to add in some eye candy to get some butts in the seats.)

The lyrics to the above-referenced Team America song are surprisingly relevant for the intertwined fates of Fulham Football Club and American soccer. “It’s the dream that we all share. It’s the hope for tomorrow.” Fulham took a long bet on a number of talented, but largely untested American players, and for a long time it looked like a losing one. It may well still be, but today’s 2-0 win in the relegation six-pointer of the week took them from presumptive relegation to real hope. As it stands now, they’re out of relegation, with one game left. Next weekend, however, things get very complicated at the bottom.

Including the Saturday results, fifteen teams in the Premier League are safe, and one is definitely relegated (Derby, of course). Bolton is still statistically a possibility for relegation, but after today’s win, they would have to lose by a significant amount next week along with two big wins for Fulham and Reading. So, that leaves three left to fight, and perhaps only one safe chair left when the music stops. Those three strugglers are Fulham (33 points, 1 game left, -23 GD), Reading (33 points, 1 game left, -29 GD), and Birmingham (32 points, 1 game left, -19 GD). The best two will survive, the others will get on the bus with Derby and head on down to the fizzy drink league.

Assuming Chelsea wins on Monday, most of the league attention will be on the title clencher between Man United and Wigan next week, but all the real drama’s going to be at the bottom. Here are the matches that still matter in the relegation fight, all of which are being played next Sunday:

Birmingham v. Blackburn – Big Eck’s Brum boys are on one less point than the other two strugglers, and so they need at least a point from this game, no matter how the other results go. Blackburn needed a penalty to save a win in their home leg of this one, and Birmingham are on form to draw good sides, having held both Everton and Liverpool recently, so this one is hardly in the bag one way or the other. Their superior goal difference could save them if they only manage a draw.

Chelsea v. Bolton – I’m including this one, even though I don’t expect it to affect the outcome. However, if Chelsea goes on a romp, trying to make up a season of 1-0 wins in a single afternoon, we could see a 6-0 like they had over Man City earlier in the season. If that happens, and Fulham and Reading win, Megson’s lads are right back in the fray.

Derby v. Reading – This is one of the more interesting ones. When’s the last time that was said about a Derby match? Reading are on probably the worst form of any of the struggling sides. To be frank, they have absolutely awful for at least the last month. Their tight loss to Tottenham today did offer some hope, but Spurs have looked none too pretty themselves in the run in. On the other hand, they are facing Derby County. Could the Rams save a bit of dignity right at the end, and bring Reading down with them? Of all of the relegation sides, Reading has the softest opponent, but will even that be enough to save them on their horrible current form?

Portsmouth v. Fulham – Like Blackburn, Pompey no longer has anything real to play for. 5th place is out of reach, and their only route to the UEFA Cup goes through Wembley, and the upcoming FA Cup final. Fulham comes in on good form, and Pompey has won only one league game in the last five. Still, closing days are a funny thing, and the Fulhamericans will need to pull out all the stops to win there.

So, it goes like this. If Bolton win or draw, they’re safe. They’re probably safe anyway, but if they lose, and both Reading and Fulham win, it will come down to goals. Basically, if Chelsea beat them by more than three, then they’re back in play. Birmingham needs help to get to safety, and basically needs both Fulham and Reading to lose or draw. It should be a nervous weekend all around, and we won’t know who goes down until the final whistle is blown. That’s as it should be.