And The 2009/10 Bundesliga Winner Is…

No need to check your calendar, it’s still mid-to-late February. And no, there’s no match-fixing scandal in the Bundesliga at present – though if you’d like to be tickled inappropriately by an elder colleague, Germany is your place.

In reality, a physics professor has claimed to have devised a system which can accurately predict the chances a team has of winning the title. But better, he says he has, in a way, debunked “luck”. This should be good.

The table published in Spiegel a few weeks ago had Bayer finally erasing all traces of the Neverkusen tag, but recent results have thrust a familiar name into the lead:

Physics professor Andreas Heuer of the University of Munster studied 20 years of Bundesliga history and has come up with a new formula for determining how much of a chance any team has of winning the Bundesliega championship. The crucial part of the research, he said, is to find the systematic effects hidden behind these random aspects we recognize as luck. According to his findings, there is currently a probability of roughly 55 percent that Bayern Munich will become the champion.

A problem:

Doesn’t Bayern have a 55%, or thereabouts, chance of winning the title nearly every year? They’ve won 49% of Bundesliga championship in history and 6% is acceptable error for this sort of thing in my book. Hell, we’ll give them a free 6% for being in absurd form right now. So absurd it’s almost like they’re playing with twelve sometimes.

Of course this thing changes by the week – you can read up and do all the maths for your weekly table here (in English via PDF) – but history is a pretty good reference point, and pegging Bayern at 45-55% to win the who freakin’ thing on an annual basis sounds pretty good to me.

Andreas isn’t the first, nor will he be the last, to try and predict the champions. Sports Club Stats has done this across the board, and they disagree greatly with Bayern picking up #22:

Leverkusen: 54.6%
Bayern: 36.7%

There you have it: someone has a 55% chance of winning the Bundesliga championship. Which club? Depends on who you ask.

Deutche Welle was forced to add a disclaimer to their article:

* This reasearch is not meant to be used for the purpose gambling on Bundesliga results. Deutsche Welle or the research parties involved are not responsible for money lost in gambles made based on these findings.

They may not recoup your losses, but if you’re betting based on this information we here at The Offside will give you something in return: 1000 lashes with Arjen Robben’s sweaty long johns.

Some Related Stories:

Category: Bundesliga, World Football