Global Recession + January Transfer Window = ???

By: Daryl | December 1st, 2008

It’s December 1st today, which means exactly one month until the January transfer window opens. And it’s going to be a weird one. Not just because of Man City’s recent ascent to wealthidom, but more because of the recent end of the world economic megameltdown. I believe that’s the technical term.

Last transfer window (summer ‘08) things were pretty much OK. This transfer window, they’re very much not. Will it affect what happens in January? And if so, how? Read on for some dangerously uninformed speculation…

First of all, will clubs spend at all? If football transfers are anything like car dealerships or the real estate market then clubs are going to have problems getting access to credit. And who’s to say that a freefalling economy won’t see football teams just do what everyone else is doing: tighten their belts and stuff all their money in a mattress.

Or maybe we’ll see the exact opposite, maybe certain teams with financial problems (West Ham?) will be forced to sell, thus “unfreezing” the transfer market and allowing richer clubs to pick up some bargains.

One thing we can say is that as the pound continues to fall in value against the euro, the spending power of Premier League clubs in Europe decreases accordingly. So Prem teams will find that transfer targets in Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 etc are a little more expensive than they used to be. And vice versa is true, with an Inter Milan bid for Chelsea’s Didier Drogba getting more affordable every time the pound drops a little.

And maybe David Beckham will look at the dollar to euro exchange rate and think maybe returning to MLS isn’t such a good idea after all.

As mentioned above, all of this is uninformed speculation. And two months in this global economy (now until Jan 31st, 2009) is long enough for almost anything to happen. We could all be roaming a post-apocalyptic landscape and trying to kill each other with carefully sharpened rocks before the transfer window even opens.

But just in case we’re not, I’m thinking we should brace ourselves for what could be a very strange January transfer window.

Or I could be completely wrong. It definitely wouldn’t be the first time. So I’d be fascinated to hear how everyone thinks the economy will affect the transfer market this January, or even if you think it will be business as usual…