Is the Ballon d’Or Getting Predictable?

By: Daryl | December 2nd, 2008

News today is that Cristiano Ronaldo has won the 2008 Ballon d’Or, awarded after 96 football journalists voted from a shortlist of 30 players. Except it’s not really news is it? Because we all knew he’d won it long before the votes were in. Just like in 2007, when we all knew Kaka would be getting the ball long before he actually did.

So is the Ballon d’Or getting predictable?

I say yes, and also have a theory as to why: football media is now dominated by attacking players. Second and third place this year went to Leo Messi and Fernando Torres respectively, and if you look back at Golden Balls past, you’ll see it’s almost always won by either attacking midfielders or strikers. The only recent exception was Fabio Cannavaro’s win in 2006, but I’d argue that was an anomaly brought on by his God-like performance at World Cup 2006, which stuck in everyone’s memory.

Put simply, consistent defenders or defensive mids don’t stand out as much over the course of a full year as attacking players do. Mostly because it’s easier to quantify an attacking player’s contribution because you can see them running around and celebrating when they score. From that point it’s actually pretty easy to judge who’s going to win the award. It’s whoever was the most effective attacking player. Last year Kaka, this year C-Ron.

And have you ever tried finding YouTube videos of defensive highlights? Good luck. Bobby Moore’s tackle on Jairzinho at the 1970 World Cup is considered by some to be “the greatest tackle ever made”, but even that isn’t available on YouTube. (although there is a 5-a-side video tribute to that tackle here to give you an idea).

So I want to start a campaign for recognition of defensive excellence. Maybe defenders should be allowed to celebrate when they make a good tackle. Maybe the ref should stop the game so Rio Ferdinand can run up to the crowd with his arms aloft after a good defensive header. Never going to happen obviously, which means this time next year we’ll be talking about the inevitability of yet another attacker winning the Ballon d’Or.

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mele419

^you're an idiot.
bobby_digital

^^^^^lol... wow you must some type of loser to let ronaldo really affect you like that...

and sportsmanship is similar along the lines of 'class', its subjective... it sounds good but it really means nothing in the big picture, it doesnt determine results or win you trophy's.. and if you want to get detailed, every professional footballer from gerrard (diving) to zidane have done questionable things.... so lets drop the notion like it makes a difference, beacuse it doesnt...

and who cares how he reacts after scoring a free kick? especially considering how amazing most of them are...he cant celebrate? he cant let 99% of the world know he's better than them at football? this nitpicking pussification of the game has to stop people... enjoy the game and the players for their talents..
mele419

Yeah I've got plenty against him, because as a human being, he's a piece of shit. Great he scored 42 goals, but he uses baby blood as oil for his cars and children's tears to water down his orange juice, which he makes cute puppies squeeze for him in his dark dank basement.
Messi and Tores are both much better than this piece of garbage. Dodgy handballs and dives are nothing compared to how utterly disgusting Ronaldo's personality and sportsmanship is. Can I cite his "Eh, whatever" reaction to his stunning free kick?
Rob

They are supposed to take the personality thing into account, at least in terms of sportsmanship and things like that. The trouble is, the alternatives - Messi has gotten himself in trouble for a few dodgy handballs and things, and Torres is known for going down as easily as Ronaldo.
bobby_digital

^^^^..mele but what does his personality have to do with his skill and all the goals he's scored and the trophy's he won last season?

sounds like u might have a lil thing against the boy ronaldo... thats a 'you' problem
mele419

Ronaldo is garbage.
He's a prissy twat with no respect for anything but himself.
He's full of himself and he's an arrogant douche. They should take these things into account when voting...
Taylor

Ah... clever puns... I also wrote that because I have the feeling that perhaps the author of the above posting may, perhaps, be a defender... and if I can find a way to bother Daryl, then I will utilize it immediately
Louise

Understood Taylor. When one appreciates great defending, one just tends to get, well, defensive.
Taylor

And Louise, trust me when I say that I would love (more than anything else) to see Berbatov track back and win a slide tackle. Some shit just ain't gonna happen though...
Taylor

While I was actually kidding about the defender thing, I do actually believe that that is the way defenders will have a better chance of winning it in the future. The idea of an attacking defender isn't a new one (see Roberto Carlos), but more and more, we're seeing defenders push forward/be utilized as wingers. It isn't so laughable that a defender with offensive talents could threaten the top three soon enough.
Nelson

I think its good that its become predictable because that shows that there was one clear winner whom everyone agreed upon. Whether you like him or not, Ronaldo deserved this award more than anyone else, defenders/keepers included.

You're right that defenders often get the shaft but who do you think was better than Ronaldo this year? Or Kaka last year?

For a defender to win it, they have to go above and beyond making great tackles...just like midfielders have to go above and beyond making great plays and strikers have to go above and beyond just scoring goals.

Impressive quality or a lot of quantity is what wins these awards
Louise

Taylor, maybe strikers should stop being so lazy and start defending.

And Laurie, don't you think defenders get enough yellows with all of those diving strikers and attacking mids? They take off their shirts after the matches anyway and don't wear layers because they're tough enough not to need them (see Sergio "HAB" Ramos and Cannavaro).
Rob

Its just because its nicer to watch someone breeze past four players and slot it in the corner, or blaze it in from 30 yards than it is to watch a really good tackle. Attacking players are more memorable. But I agree and have long argued that defence is as much a skill. It is a shame that Maldini will retire having never won it, despite the fact he is the best footballer of his generation in any position.
Taylor

Maybe defenders should quit being so lazy/John Terry-esque and start scoring goals... Evra and Rafael seem to be operating on that strategy... albeit, one apiece over two seasons...
Laurie

When defenders start removing their shirts after a good tackle, they will start to get noticed.

Just a thought.
Louise

I absolutely agree that it is getting predictable. And I think based on the fact that Leo Messi got second for hardly playing for his club last season (which didn't win anything) and winning an under-23 tournament is a clear indication that he's going to win the 2009 Ballon.
ursus arctos

It's always been predictable to a certain degree, and it's always been biased in favour of attacking players. I haven't gone back and checked, but my recollection is that no more than a quarter of the short list were defenders (and that includes keepers).

The latter bias is a source of unending pain for the Italian football press, which considers itself to be the ultimate Guardians of the Temple of Defence.

If I were the editor of La Gazzetta, I would seriously consider sponsoring a Balon d'Or like competition for the best defensive player in the world. And then I'd give three honorary awards to Facchetti, Scirea and Maldini (just as France Football gave an honorary Balon d'Or to Maradona). The Buffon/Casillas debate alone would be extremely interesting.
Looooooool

Ronaldo was always going to win it as last year he was the best in the world, 42 goals says it all.
martin

This is true, but is this not because attacking skills are more difficult than defensive skills? I know it sounds simplistic but I think its true.