Premier League Prediction: Final Standings 2008/9

The Premier League gets underway tomorrow, and I’m feeling brave. So brave that I’ve taken a (likely woefully inaccurate) guess at how the 2008/9 Premier League table will finish, one to twenty.

Read on to see what the final table almost certainly won’t look like, and even further on to where I try and justify my choices.

But before you tear me to pieces, remember these are just predictions. Just 20 stabs in the dark from a guy sitting in front of a keyboard. Except for Hull getting relegated. That’s nailed on.

1 Chelsea
2 Man Utd
3 Liverpool
4 Arsenal
5 Tottenham
6 Portsmouth
7 Aston Villa
8 Newcastle
9 Everton
10 Sunderland
11 Blackburn
12 Middlesbrough
13 West Ham
14 Fulham
15 Man City
16 Wigan
17 West Brom
18 Bolton
19 Stoke
20 Hull

First of all, yes, I picked Chelsea to win it. Look, we all know it’s either them or it’s Man Utd (because the Prem is really a big two, not a big four) and I tossed a coin. When the coin landed it showed a Chelsea team that finally have a proper manager again, a happy again John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba, and Deco finally adding some artistry to the mix.

Chris and myself disagreed over who would finish third. His pretty convincing argument is that Arsenal’s young team is maturing and that the return of Eduardo and Tomas Rosicky will see Wenger’s men challenge again. He might well be right. But my feeling is that the loss of Flamini, Gilberto Silva and Hleb actually leaves them even shorter on experience than last season, especially because new recruits like Aaron Ramsey and Samir Nasri are toddlers. Talented, but still toddlers.

Plus I’m the one that sat down and typed out the list, so Liverpool – with the new Keane & Torres double act and Rafa Benitez finally learning the lesson of squad rotation (ie: don’t bloody do it) – are finishing third and Arsenal fourth. But having to think about this made it clear that it’s not a big four fighting for the title. There’s a two tier system at work in the big four already.

Is 2008/9 the season that Tottenham finally break the big four? It’s a bit like asking “Will Humphrey Bogart leave with Ingrid bergman?” as you watch Casablanca for the twentieth time. Maybe, but experience tells us no. True, they look good (Modric, Dos Santos, Bentley, no more Robinson) but seems we ask the question every year, and the answer is always no.

Portsmouth and Villa continue to make strides, and I can’t wait to see the two big-man / fast-man partnerships at work in Crouch/Defoe and Carew/Agbonlahor. Villa even finally signed a right back, so they must be serious.

What else… Chris felt Newcastle were riding a bit high there. In fact his exact words were “Woah. Really? Woah.” But there’s a lot of quality at St James’ Park, and if Fabricio Coloccini can sort out the defence then things could go nicely on Tyneside.

I see Everton struggling a bit more than previously, if only for this statistic – players out: Andy Johnson, players in: no one of note. Man City might look a bit low too, but there’s surely some more Shinawatra related chaos to come at Eastlands this season, which won’t be helpful.

Skipping to the bottom, I think you’ll agree that Hull City are screwed. Unfortunately, they’re going to be this year’s Derby County. Stoke will put up a fight, maybe literally, and they’re tough brand of football might pick up a few points, but there’s not enough there to stay up. And the final team for the drop is [drumroll] NOT West Bromwich Albion. If only because – no matter how often it’s predicted – the three that come up are almost never the three that go down. Bolton have lost their spark (and some spit?) in El Hadji Diouf, as well as old warhorses like Ivan Campo and Stelios, and I just see them struggling.

For a more in depth team by team Premier League preview, you should definitely read Rob’s Premier League Offside guide. It’s in alphabetical order: Arsenal-Chelsea, Everton-Man City, Man Utd-Stoke

To see who’s playing who in the Premier League this weekend, take a look at the schedule.

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Category: English Premier League, World Football