Soundoff: Pick Your European Golden Boot Winner

By: chris | August 12th, 2009

Yesterday, Raul declared his immediate eligibility for the old age home by proclaiming Mikey Owen a possible candidate for the Premiership scoring title, despite ample evidence to the contrary (such as years 2004-2009). But it brings up a good question: just who is the likely scoring leader – and not just of England, but of the whole damn continent? Who will win the hallowed – umm…what’s that goddamn acronym again?…ah yes – ESM Golden Shoe? This we must ponder.

From history we can learn much, so to history we must go, as a pattern has emerged after 2002-03.

Goals scored in the top five leagues according to the UEFA coefficients list are multiplied by a factor of two, and goals scored in the leagues ranked six to 21 are multiplied by 1.5.

* – Leagues 1-5: Spa, Eng, Ita, Ger, Fra; leagues 6-21: everything else that matters. [Linky]

One thing worth noticing is that the past seven winners have come from one (or two) of the big three, for two important reasons:

i. That 2.0 multiple helps. A lot.

ii. If you’re playing in those leagues, you’re probably pretty decent at football*.

* – “probably” being key.

Also worth noting is that each of the past seven winners, and most in total, were either in their prime or damn near close to it.

Looking at the past winners with even a semi-realistic chance of repeating…..

Roy Makaay: Past it with the 1.5 bump in the Eredivisie. No dice, Roy.

Thierry Henry: More than anyone, I gather Titi will reap the Barca benefits of Zlatan, who is much more than a typical poacher. However…no.

Diego Forlan: Coming back to him.

Luca Toni: Fat; non-factor.

Francesco Totti: On a tear against grade C Europa League competition (5g in 2), but injuries, age, etc. insert a few questions.

Cristiano Ronaldo: Can’t discount him, but are there enough balls in Spain for Real Madrid? Most of these cats were far and away The Guy on their teams. Cristiano, for all his gel-sculpted grandeur, is not that – not with so many big names alongside.

Diego Forlan: For anyone watching the tail end of La Liga last year, the gushing over Barca’s brilliance was only half the story; the other half was this man, Senor Forlan. His end-of-year tear was of epic proportions (21 in his final 19), and not only lifted his team, but changed the scope of an entire league. With two goldies, or one and a half, already on the mantle, his pedigree is unquestionable and becoming the first three time winner is not unlikely, and certainly not should this year pick up from last.

And thus we can deduce from the list of recent winners, Diego Forlan is the most likely to repeat. Again.

But you knew that already.

So what, from recent history, have we learned?

The winner will likely come from either Spain, England or Italy.
The winner will likely be in or near his prime (Cristiano, I suspect, will simply have a really long prime).
With the exception of Fiorentina, every team finished within the top four. However, Fiorentina actually placed fourth, but were dropped to 9th after a 30pt penalty due to that pesky bastard known as Calciopoli.
Only two league winners, Titi’s undefeated Arsenal and CR in 07/08, won the shoe. This means two of eight (including the tie in 03-04) won the title, pegging the likelihood at 25%. That’s not exactly high, meaning the winner most likely will not be on a league champion.
No team has had two different winners.
They are, or were, all undoubtedly world class.

To get started, Daryl and I will offer up our selections.

Daryl: Lisandro Lopez (Lyon), for reasons unknown to brainiac scientists the world over, as well as Daryl.

Chris: Seven isn’t the greatest sample size known to man, but then this’d be no fun. Here goes….

1. Ruling out Germany, France, everyone else.
2. Picking top four teams on a whim: Chelsea, Liverpool, ManU, Arsenal, Juventus, Milan, Inter, Roma/Fiorentina, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico, Villarreal.
3. Ruling out Manchester United, Roma, Fiorentina, Arsenal, Villarreal, Atletico based on previous winners (sans Totti/Forlan).
4. Picking my champeens: Barcelona, Chelsea, Juventus.
5. Leaving: Liverpool, Milan, Inter, Real, Diego Forlan, Francesco Totti.
6. The portion where we eliminate Real Madrid for the world not having enough footballs.
7. Possible forwards in or near their prime from the remaining: Fernando Torres, Diego Milito, Samuel Eto’o, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Forlan, Totti. (Kuyt’s not a poacher, Inzaghi is nowhere near his prime, Ronaldinho’s prime is stinking drunk at a club somewhere, Pato/Balotelli too young, etc.)

We can eliminate the teammates who will be fighting each other tooth and nail for the goals and thus probably splitting the spoils; unless Spalletti is canned or Francesco gets a preseason leg transplant, it won’t be Totti; and while Forlan’s run was incredible, I suspect Kun Cousteau will take back some of those goals this year through incessant penalty hunting. Thus leaving Klaas & Fernando…

…now, swearing on Francesco Totti’s knee (which means you know it’s serious), before going through this convoluted process or even starting on this ridiculous post, I chose, on that “whim”, Fernando Torres. Which can only mean mean two things:

i. I was without question subconsciously influenced.
ii. The winner will without question be Klaas Jan Huntelaar.

And now, it’s off to you.