Statistical Preview: The Manchester Derby

Today’s Manchester Derby might be one of the most important in years, both in terms of table position and momentum. Man United are top of the Premier League, but find themselves in a tough spot between last week’s humbling loss to Wolves and next week’s Champions League knockout match with Marseille. The end of an undefeated season is one thing – a losing streak is something else. Manchester City would just about kill to put United in that position.

Here are some numbers on the derby, and what we might expect, before the whistle blows and the stats go out the window.

Total Form
United: LWWWW; City: WDDLW
The loss to Wolves made all the headlines last weekend (after Arsenal’s second-half implosion) but before that stumble, United were not only undefeated in the league, but on a tear with four wins in a row in all competitions. Meanwhile, in an 11-day period, City failed to win once in a stretch of matches against Birmingham, Notts County and Aston Villa. Regardless of last week’s loss, you have to call overall form for Manchester United.

Goalkeeping / Defending
No team has been more dominant at home this season than Man United. They’ve taken 37 points out of 39 at Old Trafford and one good reason is their regular stinginess at the back. Van der Sar and company have earned 7 clean sheets in 13 home matches, and have conceded only eight goals. City have been similarly tough to break down on their travels, conceding a league-low 12 goals on the road. Their road trips have included clean sheets over Spurs and Arsenal. Still, the advantage again has to go to United, who will be very hard to break down at OT.

Midfield / Passing
Both Manchester sides found themselves facing relegation-threatened teams last week, and both have played Aston Villa in the last month, so there’s some data to compare between the two midfields. Last week, United’s passing was pretty suspect, completing only 73% of their attempts against Wolves. City, meanwhile, completed 82% in their win over West Brom. In the two matches against Villa, they were again the better passing side, so this stat has to go to Manchester City.

The Guardian chalkboards for both team’s matches against Villa. City dominated the midfield, but their crossing was poor, probably costing them the win:

Attacking
Neither of these sides has been particularly accurate in front of goal lately, and both have had one awful match out of the last three in this regard. Against Wolves, United only managed three shots on target, and against Aston Villa, City only hit the target twice out of 25 total shots. Man City have the more in-form striker in Carlos Tevez, who scored all three last week. United, on the other hand, have the advantage that they always seem to have – variety and depth. Their last nine goals have come from six different scorers, while Tevez has scored four of City’s last five. So do you go with the hot individual or the team that can pull a goal from anywhere? Hard to say, and I’m calling this one a draw.

Overall Prediction
A win here for Man City would be massive, but it would be a surprise. They have the advantage of facing United before a Champions League week, but the great disadvantage of facing them after their first loss. Sir Alex Ferguson will be desperate to avoid two losses on the trot, and I honestly don’t think that will happen. Mancini has said that he will attack from the start on Saturday, but given that few managers accurately describe their tactics to the papers before the match, it might be reasonable to expect a conservative match from the visitors. It’s hard to see a lot of goals coming from this one, and I’ll go with a 2-1 win for the hosts.

Do you think you know what will happen in the big derby? First, leave your predictions in the comments. Then, head over to our Picklive fantasy game and put your money (one quid at a time) where your mouth is. Also, extra points to anyone that can pick a better fantasy team name than the Denmark-England winner on Picklive this week, “Teenage Mutant Ninja Škrtels”. Really strong work there.

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Category: World Football