Weekend Predictions: Spanish Civil War.

By: chris | April 24th, 2009

There’s a dearth of quality games this weekend – at least going in – with many leagues already wrapped up or others not asking us before scheduling fixtures (how dare they). However, Spain has come to save the day with the top four teams all taking on one another and three of the four on something of a roll. Barcelona (1) to the Mestalla to test Valencia (4) and Sevilla (3) will lick their wounds and host those resilient blancos (2). It’s as though somebody created one half of a seeded playoff.

And what’s more is these are the ‘warmups’ (though Barca still has Chelsea to go) for next weekend’s Clasico. You’d think they did this on purpose or something.

The current top half of the La Liga table:

With all apologies to Villarreal (still rubbish against decent teams), (still weaving rubbish with the spectacular) and Malaga (A+ for effort but they have certain limitations) these four will likely be Spain’s submissions to next year’s Money League. Sevilla have a nice little buffer and a relatively cushy end to the season while Valencia have magically begun winning again since finding paychecks in their lockers – what a coincidence. And, of course, the other two go without saying.

Valencia (4th) v Barcelona (1st) Sat. 2200 CET

Valencia are on a nice little run with five wins and a bank loan enabling the players to be compensated for their athletic movements, but what Barcelona did to Sevilla on Wednesday was outright filthy. It was akin to watching a tiger casually toy with a mouse, striking a crippling blow whenever the want to tickle their fancy arose. And this with The Messiah on the bench.

Which leads one to believe that despite the game being held at the Mestalla, the only way Valencia gets a result is if Pep or the players start imagining Los Che running around in blue kits. It’s altogether possible, but unlikely.

Prediction: Barcelona 3-1. Simply too good. (Messi. Is that cheating? I don’t care.)

Odds:

Valencia win: 13 – 5
Draw: 12 – 5
Barca win: 5 – 6

More odds at Paddy Power.

Bonus Prediction: When asked before the game about a possible summer move to Barcelona, both David Villa and David Silva will reply, “I love Valencia“. When asked post-game, both will reply, “I love Valencia, but…“.

Sevilla (3rd) v Real Madrid (2nd) Sun. 1900 CET

Raise your hand if you know that Real Madrid have won 16 of their last 17 La Liga matches, dropping a total of four domestic points since Juande Ramos took over (you won’t find this line on Bernd Schuster’s CV anytime soon) and all four dropped points having come in derbies – three to Barca, one to Atletico.

Obviously the rivalry builds up an everlasting lather, but do you suspect Barcelona has Real particularly peeved this year? Cup competitions notwithstanding, they’re utterly fantastic. A tank, steamrolling any and all. And even when it seems all has been lost they dig so far back they come ’round again and put in heroics such as those we saw Tuesday night. And yet, nothing – it’s still all about Barcelona. Anything Real can do, Barca can do better. Perhaps this is what so infuriated Pepe and Marcelo on Tuesday, and maybe we’ll see a bit more this weekend? Lord knows what’ll happen next weekend – other than Leo wearing seven sets of shinpads.

Sevilla, unfortunately, aren’t what you’d call spectacular at the moment. They’ve lost three in a row – Getafe (at home), Valencia and Barcelona – to the tune of an 8-1 scoreline. An angry team which has won 16 of 17 and treats every single fixture as the must-win it is probably isn’t what they want to see right now.

Prediction: Real 2-1. Sevilla could suddenly wake up, but like Barcelona falling asleep against Valencia, it’s unlikely. (Romaric. I’m due a somewhat bold prediction.)

Odds:

Sevilla win: 13 – 8
Draw: 11 – 5
Real Madrid win: 11 – 8

More odds at Paddy Power.

Bonus Prediction: Pepe and Adriano are found in the stands together eating ice cream (we’ll go with….pistachio). After the game the two who’ve lost their love for football will be swapped for one another.

Coupe de la Ligue final: Bordeaux v Vannex OC. Sat. 2045 CET

This is a tried and true Cinderella story. Vannes OC, restructured in 1998, have never played in Ligue 1. They’re currently enjoying a modest first year in Ligue 2 as it is, 10th with a mediocre-at-best -9 differential, having spent the last ten years making their way up from the fifth tier of French football. And with the Coupe de la Ligue, think of it as France’s Carling Cup, only allowing teams from the top two divisions, this is also Vannes’ CdlL debut. Despite all this, they find themselves in the final, with Ligue 1 sides Nice and Auxerre left in their wake.

Bordeaux, on the other hand, are strongly challenging for the Ligue 1 title and though they head in clear favorites, just might find themselves distracted enough by the final title push to allow the prince through the front door with that forgotten glass slipper.

Prediction: How can I do anything but? Vannes 3-2 (ET). (I’m not going to pretend like I know the name of a single player on Vannes, so I’ll do the right thing and forfeit the point.)

Bonus Prediction: Vannes will win the Coupe de la Ligue and Guingamp will win the Coupe de France for the Ligue 2 double.

Over on Bet Offside, Offshore Oscar is backing Fiorentina to beat Roma, Borussia Monchengladbach to beat Arminia Bielefeld, and a first win for Alan Shearer as Newcastle beat Portsmouth.

Time for a look at last week’s predictions.

Here are the scores and scorers:

Arsenal 1-2 Chelsea (Walcott; Malouda, Drogba)
Juventus 1-1 Inter (Grygera; Balotelli)
Boca 1-1 River (Palermo; Gallardo)

Based on the very scoring system invented (three points for correct scoreline, one point for correct result – ie home win/away win/draw – and one point for correct goalscorer) Daryl scored a grand total of one point last week. These people did considerably better:

Gold
Drabik: 8 pts (nailed both 1-1 draws, plus Balotelli and Drogba to score)

Silver
Rob: 5 pts (one correct scoreline, one correct result and Palermo to score)

Bronze
Mustafa 4 pts (Chelsea win, Drogba goal, Juve-Inter draw, Palermo to score)

Now it’s time for your predictions (with a goalscorer from each for a bonus point):

Valencia – Barcelona
Sevilla – Real Madrid
Bordeaux – Vannes